Monthly Market Insights | November 2022
Stocks posted big gains in October, propelled by better-than-expected corporate reports.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average led, gaining 13.95 percent. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index tacked on 7.99 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite added 3.90 percent.1
A Volatile Few Weeks
October opened with a powerful two-day rally, but the momentum faded. News that Britain’s prime minister had reversed her tax cut proposal helped spark the rally, but the gains were erased on renewed fears of higher interest rates and possible recession.2
Market volatility accelerated when a higher-than-expected consumer inflation number sent stocks tumbling in early trading before inexplicably staging a massive reversal that saw the Dow Industrial rally 1,500 points from its intraday low.3
Earnings Spark Rally
As earnings season opened mid-month, investors put aside worries about Fed policy and recession to focus on how companies fared in the third quarter.
By the end of October, 263 companies in the S&P 500 index had reported earnings, and 73.4 percent had topped Wall Street analysts’ estimates – above the 66 percent long-term average. Sales rose by 10.3 percent, but much of that gain was attributed to the effects of inflation.4
Mega-Cap Tech Blues
Several mega-cap technology names checked in with disappointing earnings for the quarter and provided weak guidance for the months ahead. The news surprised some investors and resulted in lower stock prices.
Old Economy Names Sparkle
While the mega-caps struggled with declining advertising, poor expense management, and a deceleration in cloud-computing growth, some "old economy" names checked in with quarterly numbers that were above expectations. For instance, in the industrials industry group sector, 83 percent of companies reported earnings above expectations compared with the 73.4 percent average.5
This divergence in third-quarter earnings between mega-cap tech and old economy names contributed to the wide dispersion in performance between the Dow Industrials and Nasdaq Composite this month.
All industry sectors notched gains in October, with gains in Communications Services (+0.67 percent), Consumer Discretionary (+1.11 percent), Consumer Staples (+9.01 percent), Energy (+24.97 percent), Financials (+11.92 percent), Health Care (+9.61 percent), Industrials (+13.89 percent), Materials (+8.93 percent), Real Estate (+2.00 percent), Technology (+7.85 percent), and Utilities (+1.94 percent).6
What Investors May Be Talking About in November
November will be a busy month for investors.
First, the market will be digesting another Fed change to interest rates and the outcome of the midterm elections. Investors will also be getting updates on inflation and the labor market.
The Consumer Price Index is set for release on November 10th, and investors will be anxious to see if inflation is moderating. The Producer Price Index will be released on November 15th, providing insights into the cost pressures producers of goods and services face.
In addition, investors' attention is expected to be focused on monthly employment reports and the weekly initial jobless claims. Trends in the job markets and wage growth will play a role in the Fed’s future decisions about interest rates.
Overseas markets rebounded in October, as political uncertainty in the UK started to get resolved and energy security in Europe improved. For the month, the MSCI EAFE Index picked up 5.26 percent.7
In Europe, Italy rose 9.7 percent, and Germany gained 9.41 percent. Elsewhere, France tacked on 8.75 percent, and Spain advanced 8.0 percent. The UK lagged, adding less than 3 percent.8
Pacific Rim markets were mixed. Hong Kong dropped 14.72 percent due to investor concerns following the meeting of China’s Communist Party. Meanwhile, Japan rallied 6.36 percent, and Australia advanced 6.01 percent. Mexico's market advance also caught the eye, picking up nearly 12 percent.9
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
The initial estimate of third-quarter GDP growth came in at an annualized rate of 2.6 percent, exceeding economists’ consensus of a 2.3 percent estimate.10
Employers added 263,000 jobs in September as the unemployment rate fell to 3.5 percent. Wage growth of 5 percent in September was below August’s gain of 5.2 percent. Labor force participation rate slipped to 62.3 percent.11
Consumer spending was flat in September compared to August, but spending was 8.2 percent higher than a year ago.12
Industrial production rose 0.4 percent in September, while capacity utilization increased to 80.3. Capacity utilization was 0.7 percent above its long-term average.13
Housing starts dropped 8.1 percent in September as higher mortgage rates tempered demand for new homes.14
September’s existing home sales slipped 1.5 percent month-over-month while falling 23.8 percent year-over-year. It was the eighth consecutive month that sales declined.15
New home sales fell 10.9 percent while posting a 17.6 percent decline from a year ago. The median sales price rose, though it remains below the record high of July.16
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Prices increased 0.4 percent in September. The year-over-year increase was 8.2 percent. Core inflation (excluding energy and food) rose 0.6 percent in September and was higher by 6.6 percent from a year ago. The annual gain in core prices was the highest in 40 years.17
Durable Goods Orders
Orders for long-lasting goods rose 0.4 percent. Civilian aircraft orders led to the sixth-monthly increase in durable goods orders in the last seven months.18
Minutes from September’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting reflected members’ concern over persistently high inflation.19
The FOMC members agreed that additional rate hikes would keep inflation from becoming embedded into the economic landscape and help prevent greater economic pain in the long run. Several members also expressed worries that overdoing such rate increases might raise the risk of economic and financial market volatility.19
By the Numbers: Peanut Butter Lovers Month
The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG Suite, LLC, is not affiliated with the named representative, broker-dealer, or state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information and should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.
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Any companies mentioned are for illustrative purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Any investment should be consistent with your objectives, timeframe, and risk tolerance.
The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, subject to revision without notice, and may not materialize.
The market indexes discussed are unmanaged and generally considered representative of their respective markets. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. The Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the Nasdaq stock market and considered a broad indicator of the performance of stocks of technology and growth companies. The Russell 1000 Index is an index that measures the performance of the highest-ranking 1,000 stocks in the Russell 3000 Index, which is comprised of 3,000 of the largest U.S. stocks. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark for the performance in major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Individuals cannot invest directly in an index. The return and principal value of stock prices will fluctuate as market conditions change. And shares, when sold, may be worth more or less than their original cost.
International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility.
The Hang Seng Index is a benchmark index for the blue-chip stocks traded on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The KOSPI is an index of all stocks traded on the Korean Stock Exchange. The Nikkei 225 is a stock market index for the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The SENSEX is a stock market index of 30 companies listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange. The Jakarta Composite Index is an index of all stocks that are traded on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The Bovespa Index tracks 50 stocks traded on the Sao Paulo Stock, Mercantile, & Futures Exchange. The IPC Index measures the companies listed on the Mexican Stock Exchange. The MERVAL tracks the performance of large companies based in Argentina. The ASX 200 Index is an index of stocks listed on the Australian Securities Exchange. The DAX is a market index consisting of the 30 German companies trading on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. The CAC 40 is a benchmark for the 40 most significant companies on the French Stock Market Exchange. The Dow Jones Russia Index measures the performance of leading Russian Global Depositary Receipts (GDRs) that trade on the London Stock Exchange. The FTSE 100 Index is an index of the 100 companies with the highest market capitalization listed on the London Stock Exchange.
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